Demography and the extinction of the European Neanderthals

Suggested causes for the sudden extinction of Neanderthals in Europe, starting around 35 ky BP, comprise food shortage, climatic effects and violence from Modern Humans. I use demographic modelling with reconstructed fertility and death rates to model the population development from the early appearance of Neanderthals in Europe some 260 ky ago. Such long-range modelling poses strong constraints on the most sensitive parameter choices and thereby strengthen the conclusions reached: that because the Neanderthals survived the maximum glaciation near the end of the previous (Saalian) ice age, it is unlikely that the adverse climatic development up to the recent (Weichselian) maximum glaciation should have caused extinction. Examination of skeletal remains from the last period of Neanderthal European presence does not provide evidence for violence and killing by Modern Humans. Further, the Neanderthal population numbers and density of prey animals do not support food shortage as an important cause for population reduction, and it is concluded, that reasons other than the suggested ones must be sought. A probable candidate is an infectious disease, presumably transmitted by the incoming Modern Humans, as the main cause of the Neanderthal demise.